Saturday, May 3, 2014

Opening Pandora's Box - Prep and Reflection

Case Preparation:

Pandora.com provided a highly customizable online radio service tailored to listeners' musical preferences and had registered explosive growth since its September 2005 launch. But proposed changes in royalty rates threatened to kill off many Internet radio sites, including Pandora. Explores Pandora's business model and whether it can evolve to remain viable.

Case takes place in 2007

At the current growth rate the company would exhaust its cash by the end of the following year. The company’s trajectory indicated that it could reach positive cash flows within two years. User base had grown to 8 million and online hours were growing 50%. The direction of the company was in question. How to balance the interests of various venture capitalists while also staying true to Pandora’s foundational dream.

In 2004 Westergren raised a “B” round of financing for Pandora.com as the company was in dire straits. Pandora was originally founded as a project to categorize music by is musical DNA, a complex collection of attributes such as rhythm, form, instrumentation, orchestration, lyrics, vocals, and many others. The business model needed money as the capability still needed time to develop. The Series B financing raised eight million dollars.

When it was first founded, Pandora had used its capability to provide a back-end music recommendation engine for other companies like Best Buy and AOL.com. After closing the second round of financing, the company change strategy radically to become a customizable Internet radio service that would let listeners state their preference for types of music or favorite artists, and then match those tastes to other songs in Pandora’s library and stream them to users personal computers.

Music Genome Project –

                Westergren was originally a musician touring as a keyboard player with an acoustic rock band. He gave that up in the late 1990’s and became a film composer in LA. Touring as a musician was difficult to eke out a living.

                The birth of the Music Genome Project was while he was a composer. The job to figure out somebody else’s musical tastes and translate that into musical elements so you can compose something they’ll like was something he was doing for a while. The project was just an effort to codify that.

                Westergren and two friends set up shop in San Francisco to build the music discovery engine to help connect listeners with artists. This engine required that each song that was placed in the library would be dissected, first, by analysts who spent 20-30 minutes codifying as many as 400 different attributes to determine a song’s musical DNA.








Marketing:


Pandora grew its customer base purely through word of mouth, or so called viral marketing. The company hadn’t spent any money on marketing. Along, with user growth, the library had swelled and Pandora had accumulated more and more data about user preferences – a classic network effect.
Music Industry:

Pandora’s goal was to create a new way for musicians and listeners to find each other. Historically, this role had been filled by record labels, which owned the entire value network for music discovery, recording, and marketing / promotions.








Pandora Reflection

The direction of Pandora’s future is something we have to question as investors. TANK Consulting did a good job capturing the essence of what we were observing. However, they didn’t stress the Genome Project during the presentation. It was more of an inferred understanding. Just to remove any doubt of the understanding, the following is our own detail:

https://www.pandora.com/about/mgp

We believe that each individual has a unique relationship with music – no one else has tastes exactly like yours. So delivering a great radio experience to each and every listener requires an incredibly broad and deep understanding of music. That's why Pandora is based on the Music Genome Project, the most sophisticated taxonomy of musical information ever collected. It represents over ten years of analysis by our trained team of musicologists, and spans everything from this past Tuesday's new releases all the way back to the Renaissance and Classical music.
Each song in the Music Genome Project is analyzed using up to 450 distinct musical characteristics by a trained music analyst. These attributes capture not only the musical identity of a song, but also the many significant qualities that are relevant to understanding the musical preferences of listeners. The typical music analyst working on the Music Genome Project has a four-year degree in music theory, composition or performance, has passed through a selective screening process and has completed intensive training in the Music Genome's rigorous and precise methodology. To qualify for the work, analysts must have a firm grounding in music theory, including familiarity with a wide range of styles and sounds.
The Music Genome Project's database is built using a methodology that includes the use of precisely defined terminology, a consistent frame of reference, redundant analysis, and ongoing quality control to ensure that data integrity remains reliably high. Pandora does not use machine-listening or other forms of automated data extraction.
The Music Genome Project is updated on a continual basis with the latest releases, emerging artists, and an ever-deepening collection of catalogue titles.
By utilizing the wealth of musicological information stored in the Music Genome Project, Pandora recognizes and responds to each individual's tastes. The result is a much more personalized radio experience - stations that play music you'll love - and nothing else.
The Genome Project is something that I wanted to stress because as an investor this is something that we need to emphasize. I believe that the market is saturated. Additionally, as someone who is known as musically challenged, my opinion is one that wasn’t brought up by the consultants. It is essentially a different path of alternative 3. Rather than liquidating we should reach a next level of funding and sell the company. Our financials at this point in time aren’t strong enough to suggest that we should pour more money with the intent to make a lifelong investment. With projected positive cash flows in two years we should recognize that either we see a return or the founder finds an alternative to his dream. Liquidating isn’t an option because as the consultants highlighted there is a cost to liquidation. We can, however, gain enough of a momentum and then seek a buyout. This will provide a return to those of us who invested a lot and Westegren can stay on the project if desired if he wants some part of his dream to remain.



Saturday, April 19, 2014

Harrah's Entertainment - Preparation & Reflection

Harrah's Entertainment Case

Preparation:

Harrah’s Entertainment, Inc. (or simply Harrah’s) is assuming a leadership role in the gaming industry through a business strategy that focuses on knowing their customers well, giving them great service, and rewarding their loyalty so that they seek out a Harrah’s casino whenever and wherever they play.  The execution of this strategy has involved creative marketing, innovative uses of information technology, and operational excellence. These component parts first came together in 1997 and have resulted in many benefits, including:

·         A doubling in the response rate of offers to customers;
·         Consistent guest rewards and recognition across properties;
·         A brand identity for Harrah’s casinos;
·         An increase in customer retention worth several million dollars;
·         A 72 percent increase in the number of customers who play at more than one Harrah’s property, increasing profitability by more than $50 million; and A 62 percent internal rate of return on the information technology investments

Business Strategy:

The decision to expand into additional gaming markets was a critical part of Harrah’s business strategy.  The growth of these markets was considered to be inevitable and helpful to Harrah’s and the industry.  As management thought about how it could create the greatest value for its shareholders, it was decided that a brand approach should be taken. With this approach, the various casinos would operate in an integrated manner rather than as separate properties.  This was a radical paradigm shift in the gaming industry where casino managers historically ran their properties as independent fiefdoms and marketing was done on a property by property basis. With the new approach, there would be commonalties in the gambling experience for customers across the various casinos.  Advertising and offers would promote the Harrah’s brand.  There would be recognition and reward programs for customers who cross-played at more than one of Harrah’s properties.  Harrah’s mission was to build lasting relationships with its customers. 


Critical to their strategy was the need to understand and manage relationships with their customers.  They believed that strong customer service relationships build on a foundation of customer knowledge. To build this foundation, Harrah’s had to learn about their customers’ behaviors and preferences.  They had to understand where their customers gambled, how often they gambled, what games they played, how much they gambled, and what offers would entice them to visit a Harrah’s casino.  Armed with this information, Harrah’s could better identify specific target customer segments, respond to customers’ preferences, and maximize profitability across the various casinos.

A key addition to the Harrah’s management team was Gary Loveman who was named COO.  This former Harvard professor had the understandings and skills needed to analyze customer behavior and preference data and to put programs in place to capitalize on this knowledge.  He helped make Harrah’s customer relationship management strategy a reality.

To generate the necessary data, Harrah’s had to make a substantial investment in information technology.  It had to capture data from customer touch points, integrate it around the customer, and store it for later analysis.  In order to understand customers’ preferences, Harrah’s had to mine the data, run experiments using different marketing interventions (i.e., special offerings), and learn what best met customers’ needs at the various casinos.  From these requirements, Harrah’s Winners Information Network (WINet) emerged.


Patron Database:

At the end of the day for each source system (the definition of  “end of day” varies with the system), relevant data is extracted for loading into the PDB.  First, however, validity and “saneness” checks are performed.  Checking for a valid address is an example of a validity check.  A saneness test checks whether the data is reasonable, such as the “drop” from a 25 cent slot machine (e.g., a $1000 drop in an hour is not reasonable).  Data that fail a test are placed in a suspended file and manually reviewed.  At 7:00 a.m., the data is loaded into PDB.  The load is completed and available for use by noon.  In terms of source systems, no matter which casino a customer goes to, the details of every visit are captured and ultimately find their way into PDB.  The data is available by customer, casino, hotel, event, gaming product, and tracked play.  Every customer is assigned an identification number, and the data about the customer are joined using the ID as the primary key.  Unless needed (e.g., such as with a promotional offer), customer names and address are not used with Harrah’s applications. 

 Total Rewards:

Total Rewards is Harrah’s customer loyalty program.  It tracks, retains, and rewards Harrah’s 15 million customers regardless of which casinos they visit over time.  Total Rewards was originally introduced as Total Gold in 1997, but it was renamed in July 1999 when a three-tiered card program– Total Gold, Total Platinum, and Total Diamond – was introduced to give more recognition to Harrah’s most active and profitable customers.  Customers accumulate Reward Credits (points) based on their gaming and other activities at any of Harrah’s properties.  These Reward Credits can be redeemed for comps on hotel accommodations, meals, and shows and cash can be redeemed at any property.  At specified Reward Credit thresholds, customers move to the next card level (e.g., from Gold to Platinum) and qualify for the privileges associated with that level (e.g., preferred restaurant reservations and seating, priority check-in at hotels).  Customers can check their Reward Credits at any time by entering their card into a slot machine or kiosk or by logging in to harrahs.com.  Total Rewards members are also sent offers of cash and comps for use at local Harrah’s casinos and destination resorts such as Las Vegas and Lake Tahoe.  Figure 4 shows a customer’s view of the Total Rewards program.



Close Loop Marketing:

Like other casinos, Harrah’s previously extended offers to customers based primarily on observed gaming worth over the years; “Harrahisms” for what did and did not work were developed but were never tested.  With WINet, the foundation was in place for a new, more scientific approach.  Campaigns could be designed, tested, and the results retained for future use.  This data-driven testing and learning approach is called “closed loop marketing” and is shown in Figure 5.  Its goal is to learn how to influence positive changes in customer behavior. Harrah’s can learn what types of campaigns or treatments provide the highest net value. 

Closed-loop marketing begins with a definition of quantifiable marketing objectives, characteristics of the test procedure, and expected values of the customers selected for the test, who are divided into experimental and control groups. Based on what is already known about their gaming customers, the test campaign (customer treatment) is designed to provide the right offer and message at the right time.  The selection of the customers and their treatments are based, in part, on Harrah’s Customer Relationship Lifecycle Model, which is shown in Figure 6.  Customers are offered customized incentives designed to establish, strengthen, or reinvigorate the relationship depending on their positions on the customer lifecycle and the time since their last visit.  For example, a new customer might have characteristics that suggest that the customer has high lifetime potential value.  Harrah’s is likely to make an exceptionally generous offer to this customer in order to build a relationship.  Or, an analysis of the customer data may reveal that a customer is “past due” to visit a Harrah’s casino based on their previous gambling history.  This kind of customer is also likely to receive a targeted message and offer in order to reinvigorate the relationship.

Each customer’s response to the campaign is tracked and analyzed in detail. Not only are response rates measured, but other metrics as well, such as revenues generated by the incentive and whether the incentive induced a positive behavior change (e.g., increased frequency of visit, profitability of the visit, or cross-play).  Based on the net value of the campaign and its profitability relative to other campaigns, Harrah’s learns which incentives have the most effective influence on customer behavior or provide the best profitability improvement opportunities. This knowledge is used for continuous refinement of marketing approaches. Literally thousands of experiments of this kind have been conducted.

IMPACT:

Harrah’s business strategy and the use of information technology are unique in the gaming industry and are more like the approaches taken in retail and financial services.  The results are impressive and other casinos are copying some of Harrah’s more discernible methods.  Harrah’s stock price has risen in response to a doubling of the company’s earnings over the past year.  The creation of the Harrah’s brand, Total Rewards, and cross marketing have resulted in a 72 percent internal rate of return on investments in information technology. 

The effectiveness of Harrah’s closed loop marketing approach can be seen by how it has affected “same-store sales” (i.e., gambling revenues at a single existing casino).  In 1999, Harrah’s experienced truly significant “same-store sales” revenue growth of 14 percent, which corresponds to an increase of $242 million over 1998.  Harrah’s grew revenues faster than their competition almost everywhere they do business – in some cases doubling and even tripling the market average of “same-store” sales. 

Harrah’s has left little to chance.  It has invested more than $100 million in computers and software to develop what is widely regarded as the industry's most sophisticated "frequent bettor" program.  With the Total Rewards program, which contains the world's largest database of casino customers, they have been able to create sustainable loyalty, a dominant competitive advantage, and insulate the business from local market volatility. 

Their innovative idea was to grow by getting more business from Harrah's existing customer base. This approach was in contrast to the prevalent strategy of building ever more elaborate and splashy new casinos. Gary W. Loveman refers to their success as "the triumph of software over hardware in gaming." 

The Total Rewards program has increased traffic in Harrah's casinos, and marketing programs driven by data from the warehouse are increasing retention.  Keeping customers goes right to the bottom line.  An increase in retention of just 1 percent is worth $ 2 million in net profit annually. So far, Harrah's is enjoying an increase in retention of a couple of percentage points, thanks in large part to its data warehouse.

Closed-loop marketing is contributing to Harrah’s competitive advantage.  According to Tracy Austin, vice president of Information Technology Development, by combining product information with customer behavior, “no one can touch us.” Overall, the data warehouse is turning up nothing but aces for Harrah's.  Harrah's "gamble" on technology is paying off.

 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Reflection:

Harrah's Entertainment has had significant changes over the course of its life time especially in regards to the areas of business intelligence and data mining . As we brought in the consulting team, "Four Experts", I was interested to hear about the lessons learned (or should have learned) and the actionable items that we could use to enhance our business strategy going forward. In the past, I usually was quick to be able to grasp concepts and make a decision based on the information at hand. However, this presentation required a bit of reflection. The presentation itself was a bit confusing as the slide preparations didn't offer much detail. I respect that the presentation had a flow of pictures but the representative output wasn't aligned. It seemed almost a requirement to have to look back and try to remember what was explained or meant by several of the slides on the provided deck. Additionally, there seemed to be some lack of cohesion in what was meant in certain instances. One example can be found in the following:


After the presentation, the various questions and answers surrounding the consultants definition of "model" customers could have been better. On a positive note, some of the consultants did offer interesting insight but in order to develop a plan of action we will need to look at some items more in depth. In order to do so, I looked at some additional sources.

The following is extracted from "Diamonds in the Data Mine" by Gary Loveman

https://faculty.unlv.edu/wrewar_emba/WebContent/Loveman_DataMining.pdf


"Meeting budget at the expense of service is a very bad idea. If you’re not making the numbers you don’t cut back on staff."

"We implemented a bonus plan to reward hourly workers with extra cash for achieving improved customer satisfaction scores, which we culled from very detailed customer surveys. If a property’s overall rating rose 3% or more, each employee could earn 75$ to 200$. What has made the bonus program work is that the reward depends on everyone’s performance. If the valet’s scores were low but the steak house receptionist’s were high, the receptionist would check in on the valet. Likewise, if one property received low scores and another high ones, the general manager of the lower scoring property might visit his colleague to find out what he could do to improve his property’s scores."



Having looked at some further detail, my suggestion is a little different than the consultants. I recommend that we continue to look at customer service as a primary objective regardless if the customer is a low roller or a high roller. We need to ensure that we retain those customers that we have as well as attract new ones. Additionally, the landscape of gaming business could change as technology improves. There might be more casino's or a different take on consumer gaming that could shift our attention. In order to stay on top of the potential considerations, the two ultimate decisions should be to first focus on all customers (those currently existing and those new potential ones), and second to consider a long term plan with another giant in the industry. We can manage potential threats by reducing our competition if we either merge or acquire them. The second option is a long term plan that needs to be considered, but in the short term we should focus on all customers.

Monday, March 31, 2014

MS Project

MS Project Memo:

                Recently several employees of our company have asked about the potential use of Microsoft Project in our work place. The memo is to address that question as well as provide some potential insight into the Microsoft Project package for those in our company that might be unfamiliar. Before addressing the option for adding Microsoft Package to our software suite lets first begin with some background.

Techsoup Defines Microsoft Project as:

"The ancestor of project-management tools, with powerful functionality that is beloved by many professional project managers but might be overkill for small or even medium-sized teams. As opposed to many of the other tools on this list, Microsoft Project is strongly focused on defining a detailed plan up front, and then updating the plan over time to account for actual time spent and actual dates hit. It assumes that there will be a central project manager who is overseeing the plan — and that this manager will have a number of hours per week to devote to keeping the plan up-to-date. But with that investment, it offers powerful ways to see the effects of changes to your project, the allocation of your team members, and more."


One of the points to highlight from the above passage is that Microsoft Project is strongly focused on defining a detailed plan up front. This portion is significant and cannot be underrated. The impact in planning and being able to utilize a software to organize and detail plans for a project is huge. We can significantly reduce potential errors, wasted time, and maintain scope over the long term by planning ahead. These impacts can result in significant savings, both literal or in the cost avoidance category.

To further stress the point of the impact with planning the following two sections from Rita Mulcahy’s PMP Exam Prep 8th Edition are useful:





Now, while I discussed the impacts in a positive way, this is not to say that Microsoft Project is the answer to our company. The impact in business that I referred to above is utilizing a software. MS Project is expensive. Some basic procurement searches show that MS Project would cost between $500 and $1000 per user depending on the level of support required. Also, the software to some degree complicated for many of the lower experienced project managers in our company. Equally, more experienced users tend to dislike the constraints of MS Project.

The following is some interesting excerpts from Chartgantt.com

“Many first-time project managers find MS Project too complex to learn and understand. Many of the biggest features take years to get down pat and work with. This complexity usually leads to them looking for less complex approaches to establishing a Gantt Chart or spreadsheet view of their Project planning data.

Knowledgeable project managers are becoming increasingly disappointed with MS Project and its many contrasting implementations. Someone will be used in MS Project enterprise edition to manage projects over an organisation. The architecture of MS Project provides a much greater degree of rigidity than many project managers would like."


As a company trying to do the best for our shareholders and customers alike, we need to aim for the products that make sense for our needs. The positive impact of a project management software cannot be understated, however, I would have to argue that with the costs and resource constraints MS Project wouldn’t have a strong linear impact that would justify the move. We should aim to explore alternatives such as Project Libre (which openly bills itself as a replacement for MS Project), GanttProject, BaseCamp,  Central Desktop and ToDOList.

Regards,

AJ Varghese

For Additional Reference Please see the below:

Basecamp
Easy to use, and widely popular, Basecamp might well be a good choice for teams without complex needs. It's focused on supporting the needs of geographically remote teams, and offers strong functionality in document-sharing, document collaboration, shared calendaring, and notifications when something changes. It's considerably more limited in the realm of planning and even task-management, however. For instance, there's no ability to create dependencies between tasks, see a Gantt chart, or define a calendar deadline for a task. It offers a number of different levels, starting at $24/month to manage up to 15 projects with unlimited users.

Central Desktop
Central Desktop is conceptually similar to Basecamp, but is somewhat more powerful. It's particularly strong in integrating with email-based workflows. For instance, you can not only share documents, calendars, tasks, and get email notifications of updates, but you can easily copy a Central Desktop email address to have emailed comments automatically entered into the appropriate place in your project files. It has a free version that supports up to two workspaces and five users, or otherwise a number of different pricing schemes, including a $25/month plan for up to 3 workspaces and 10 users, or a "community plan" that's simply $3 per user per month. Ask about additional nonprofit and charity discounts.
If Basecamp and Central Desktop look interesting to you, there are a number of other web-based, collaboration-focused tools in the same vein. For instance, you might want to consider GoPlan, DotProject, or Zoho Project.

DreamTeam for Salesforce
Those that are using Salesforce to manage their constituents should consider DreamTeam, which is free to nonprofits and charities for up to 10 licenses. This tool straddles the gap between Microsoft Project and the collaboration-focused web-based project-management tools, with solid support for project planning and Gantt charting as well as the more typical collaboration and document-sharing functionalities.

And

Project Redstreak Memo

Memo: Project Red Streak Development

                As part of the project team for Project Red Streak, we feel it is imperative to keep management in the loop regarding our considerations. We have constructed the initial development plan given the high level criteria. With a start date of 1/1, the project is projected to take 271 calendar days. Our current expected finish date is the end of September (approximately 9/29). The time differences are given holidays, weekends, and workflow estimations. Though the project will start 1/1, it will not actually start till the following day due to the holiday schedule. Additionally, there is a total of 272 work day items, but the reduced schedule is due to the overlap of work. We expect that due to the nature of the workflow we will be able to complete all work in this time frame.

As part of this note, please find two attached supplementary files for illustration. The first is a GANTT Chart and the other a Network Diagram. I will also provide them in screen shot format for easier viewing below the note. For those who may be unfamiliar with GANTT Charts and Network Diagrams please refer to the following items that outline definitions as advantages and disadvantages of each by ProjectManagementGuru.com:

“The Gantt, or Bar, chart is the most common schedule format used on projects. This format is excellent for tracking progress or activity for tasks once they have been scheduled. In the Gantt chart, every task is represented by a bar of a time line chart. The left edge of the bar is located at the time the task is planned to start and the right edge of the bar is located at the time the task is planned to end. As the project unfolds, the edges of the bars are often modified to reflect when the task actually started or ended. This format creates focus for tracking progress because it is clear to see whether a task should be completed, underway, or pending at any given time. The Gantt chart is used for daily/weekly tracking of project progress. It is easy to use and maintain. It has become the most commonly used project schedule chart because of its simplicity and the focus it creates when tracking the project. If the task estimates are relatively accurate, this is the preferred format. However, when task duration estimates are not accurate - either due to uncertainty in the amount of work or uncertainty in the resource availability - the Gantt Chart will be a frustrating and counterproductive scheduling tool. In those cases I recommend the use of the Network Diagram.

The Network Diagram is essentially a flowchart of the project tasks. This format is a foundational technique for several analytical techniques. The network is created by determining predecessor and successor relationships and connecting the tasks based upon those relationships. This technique will create focus on the handoffs. In a complex project with many organizations/individuals involved, this technique can provide guidance as to who is the internal customer for each task. The technique is often viewed as a foundational technique since most of the advanced analytical scheduling tools start with the Network Diagram. When task durations are uncertain, the Network Diagram is often a better technique to use than the Gantt (bar) chart. The Network Diagram shifts the focus for uncertain tasks from arbitrary start and end dates to completion of the work and a handoff to the next task/activity.”

Utilizing the GANTT Chart and the Network Diagram we can easier see some significant items including the critical path and work flow. Our critical path is through items 2,3,5,8,9,10,11,13, and 14. Please see the Network Diagram items in pink for a complete reference. We will find the bulk of our float in the middle of the project. An example of which is with Detailed Marketing Plans (item 6) and Manufacturing Process (item 7). Items 8 and 8 will take 50 days and 10 days, respectively, to complete before the next task. While the depth of the project requires our critical path to be highly maintained we can find opportunities if delays exist early on.


Please note that a follow up will be distributed shortly regarding MS Project and business impact.

Regards,

AJ Varghese

Supplementary Material:

GANTT Chart and Network Diagram Definition Source:
http://www.projectmanagementguru.com/scheduleplan.html

Select PMI Definitions: 

Sourced from : doit.maryland.gov/SDLC/.../Network%20Diagrams.doc

Schedule network analysis, as defined by the Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK), is a technique used by project managers to analyze schedule information and generate realistic and optimal project schedules.  This analysis should be performed upon completion of the draft schedule and network diagram and after each schedule update.  Schedule network analysis involves:

·         Identifying the schedule impact of task dependencies
·         Identifying critical path tasks and understanding the impact of the critical path on the schedule.  Software tools such as Microsoft Project automatically display critical path tasks once project information such as tasks, dependencies, and durations are identified in the tools.
·         Analyzing the effects of schedule constraints and externally imposed dates
·         Understanding which tasks can experience delays without delaying the overall schedule
·         Conducting “what if” analysis of various activity durations (for example, what if the testing activities take twice as long as is currently planned?)
·         Assessing resource allocation and leveling to prevent resource over-allocation
·         Assessing fast tracking or crashing options to ensure optimal schedule performance

Analytical Techniques:

PMBOK describes the following techniques to perform schedule network analysis.  For more detail regarding analytical techniques, which provide valuable information necessary for effective schedule definition, see PMBOK, fourth edition, Section 6.5.2.  Most scheduling tools include features that allow utilization of these techniques with minimal effort.

·         Critical Path Method – The critical path method calculates the longest path of planned activities to the end of the project – the “critical path” – and the earliest and latest date that each activity can start and finish without extending the project.  Any activity delay on the critical path impacts the planned project completion date.  A network diagram visually conveys the critical path.  This visibility into the critical path allows project managers to prioritize activities and take appropriate corrective actions to meet schedule deadlines.

An understanding of the critical path also allows project managers visibility as to which schedule activities are flexible – that is, those activities that are not on the critical path.  By looking at a network diagram, project managers can determine when they have float or slack, which is the amount of time that any given schedule activity can be delayed without causing a delay to the start date of subsequent activities (free float) or to the project completion date (total float).   Knowing when a project has float allows a Project Manager to understand what tasks may slip and by how much before they have an impact on the project schedule. 

Project Redstreak Criteria:



GANTT Example (for easier viewing):



Network Diagram Examples (for easier viewing split into 3):





Saturday, March 29, 2014

PREP Case preparation and Reflection

The Puerto Rico Education Project System Development In An Island Paradise

Preparation Notes:

Puerto Rico has a population of four million on an island of only 3,400 square miles. It is a U.S. possession, and its citizens have full U.S. citizenship, but the people have chosen to continue as a commonwealth rather than as a state of the Union. This means that they receive protection and govern­ment aid, but they are not required to pay Federal income taxes, and they have considerably more governmental freedom than they would have as a state.

Puerto Rico is more densely populated than any state of the U.S., and the proportion of people below the poverty level is much greater than on the U.S. mainland.

The Puerto Rico Education Project (PREP) resulted from a contract negotiated by a division of a large U.S. company (here­after called USCO) with the Puerto Rico Department of Education. The contract, funded by the U.S. government, specified the installation of a large mainframe computer and associated hardware, the design and implementation of a system to assist the Department in evaluating the results of education programs funded by the Federal government, and development of a large database containing data about all the students, teachers, and schools throughout the island. The cost of the hardware was about $5 million. It was expected that system design and devel­opment would require another $10 million, consisting primarily of personnel costs, and would take three years to complete.
At its peak the project staff would consist of about 25 people, of whom twenty would be relocated from the U.S. and the other five would be local hires.

As the contractor, USCO agreed to perform the following:

  • Design and implementation of methods and procedures for the collection and storage of educational base-line data.
  •  Design and implementation of data handling procedures.
  • Design and development of mathematical models and techniques to permit the continual assessment and evaluation of educational programs.
  • Design and implementation procedures for the maintenance and updating of data in the base-line framework.
  • Training of Puerto Rican personnel in effective use of the system.


Project Staffing and Other Initial Decisions

Client perceptions of the success of prior projects performed by the company was one of the most important factors in obtaining new business, so client satisfaction was a primary objective, and quality control was closely monitored.

It was clear to USCO executives that the Puerto Rico project should be classified as a domestic assignment. Puerto Rico was not a foreign country; it was part of the U.S., so the international policies did not cover PREP. This was to be administered as a domestic off-site project, the same as if it were in Oklahoma or Illinois.

There were to be three levels of management: Level 1, the Project Manager, who would report to a USCO Vice President in headquarters; Level 2, the System Design Manager, the Programming Manager, and the Administration Manager; and Level 3, several first-line managers reporting to the System Design and Program­ming Managers.

Next in line was Gary Johnson, who had just completed a major project at the Pentagon and whose expertise was in hardware. He had managed large numbers of people in complex military projects, although none had any connection to education. Johnson had never been involved in an off-site project, but this one appealed to him partly because he saw this as an opportunity to aid humanity and alleviate poverty in some small way.

This was to be a three-year project on a remote island, so the families of project personnel would be moving there with them. The moves were expensive for the company, so each employee selected was required to agree in writing that the family would commit to staying in Puerto Rico for three years. There were, of course, provisions for leaving sooner for valid reasons such as illness of the employee or a family member. There were also provisions that virtually guaranteed that the employees could count on continued employment with USCO for at least 18 months after completion of the contract; in jobs of equal or greater status and compensation.

The staffing plan called for a small team of systems analysts and planners in the first year, building up gradually to a peak of 30 people by the second quarter of the second year. Program­mers would not be needed for the first nine months or so. The mainframe computer was being custom-designed and would not be available until then, and there would be no defined programs to write until a substantial part of the system design work had been done. However, a large U.S. Army project had just been completed at the Pentagon that had employed a number of young, bright program­mers. Since it had always been difficult to get good programmers when they were needed, Johnson felt it prudent to hire seven of these programmers and take them along to Puerto Rico. Smaller comput­ers could be made available for them to work with, and surely there would be important tasks that they could perform.

The Move to Puerto Rico:

It was becoming increasingly evident that conditions in Puerto Rico were considerably different than had been expected. Living costs were actually about 15% higher than in the U.S., particularly at the supermarkets, which had to ship most products in from the U.S. and other countries. Another problem that surfaced immedi­ately was schooling. There were about 15 school age children among the families in the project, and the school term was starting shortly after their arrival. Belatedly, it was realized that the basic reason for the PREP project was that the school system on the island was mediocre; teacher and principal salaries were extremely low and facilities were old and in poor condition. Some schools did not even have electricity. Many of the windows were metal louvers rather than glass, and had to be closed during the frequent rain showers. At such times, the pupils had to sit in the dark until the rain stopped. Also, the language in the public schools was Spanish, which none of the project children spoke. It was obviously necessary that they attend private schools, at an average cost of $2500 per semester per child. In a foreign assignment, private school would have been assumed, but since this was a domestic assignment it was decided that a schooling allowance was out of the question; it might have led to demands from employees on other projects that USCO pay for private school tuition. Instead, for each employee with school age children, salaries were raised just enough to cover the schooling costs. It was understood by the company and by the employees that this was a temporary raise and would be rescinded when they returned to the U.S. mainland. It took several months for agreement to be reached on this issue, and it was the source of considerable bitterness.

The most serious morale problems were with the spouses of the employees. Most families had only one car, which the employee needed for the trip to the office. Many of the wives were stranded at home most days, with small children to care for, and neighbors who spoke little or no English. They were also disturbed by the slower pace of life as compared to the U.S., which they derisively termed the “maƱana” philosophy, especially when they needed some service professional such as a plumber or painter to come to the house. Still another problem was a lack of telephone service; for the first year of the project, most of the families were not able to obtain a phone. Two women gave birth to babies and had no telephone service during the entire pregnan­cy.

Dolores Valdez, the secretary who became Administration Manag­er, proved to be competent at finding good office space. Banco Popular, the largest bank on the island, had just completed a new building in Santurce, in the heart of the business district. Dolores leased the entire 17th floor in that building, nicely furnished and with a panoramic view of the city. However, she had never managed people, and she did not like to get involved with the employees’ personal and financial problems. She pre­vailed upon Johnson to make those decisions and fight those bat­tles, so he had little time for actually running the project. This was a source of increasing frustration for him.

The PREP Project

The data collection volumes to be dealt with in this project were quite large. The Department of Education operates schools throughout the island. At the time of PREP, there were more than 2,000 schools, with 25,000 teachers serving nearly 800,000 pupils. Among all school systems in the U.S., only those in New York City and Los Angeles are of comparable size.

In their pleasant office facilities the project managers were beginning to recognize some of the problems that lay ahead. They were still involved with getting their families settled, but what had seemed to be a comfortable project schedule was looking increasingly tight. The system to be developed was still not well defined, but the volumes were staggering to contemplate. Burt Garfield analyzed the data entry requirements: for the 800,000 record Pupil file, assuming only 40 characters per record (much less than the U.S. Office of Education wanted), data entry alone would require three hundred person weeks of effort. This could not commence until forms and instruc­tions were designed, distributed, and returned, and it would have to be completed by early spring so that files could be built for the programs to analyze. Although this was a simple calculation, the contract estimates had not taken the data entry effort into account. The scope of the project had to be cut down; it was decided to collect data on only 200,000 pupils and to postpone the rest until the second year.

The system was intended to have a planning and research focus, since its main purpose was for program evaluation. To aid research, it should be possible to select a representative sample from a large population on demand, and software should be available to perform statistical calculations on the data. As a planning tool, the system should readily provide data relating to trends in pupil mobility, performance problems, inadequate facilities, etc. The system was also expected to offer advantages to teachers in the form of improved and timelier reports on pupil performance, such as test results and pupil profiles.

Progress was disappointing, however. Some of the problems that had been encountered included the following:

·         The programmers, who had been included in the initial contingent under the rationale that they might be difficult to find later, were unhappy. The large mainframe computer for which their programs were to be written would not be delivered for several months. There were useful tasks to keep them busy, such as writing specifications for programs, and smaller computers were available for some of the tasks, but they were anxious to write and test the actual code for the main system.
·         Data for every pupil and every teacher in one quarter of the 2,000 schools was to be collected. The data collec­tion procedure was designed so that each teacher filled out the data form for each of his or her pupils. In preparation for this, the project systems analysts inter­viewed principals and teachers in a number of schools. None of the systems analysts spoke Spanish well enough to communicate in that language. It was found that, although most of the teachers could understand basic English, they were having a very difficult time under­standing the procedure, which involved some fairly techni­cal concepts for which they did not have the vocabulary. Some of the analysts suggested to Gary Johnson that he hire two or three young Puerto Rican college graduates as analysts; they would be able to explain the concepts to the teachers in their own language. This suggestion was resisted by USCO officials, who felt that the language problem had been solved by the provision for Berlitz courses.
·         The data collection forms were printed and ready, but there was no satisfactory delivery service for transport­ing them to the schools, especially those located in the remote areas of the island. It became necessary to rent vans and for the analysts them­selves to deliver the forms, and later to pick up the completed forms from the schools. This was quite dangerous, because the rural interior areas were mountainous, the roads were narrow and sharply curved, and often covered with slippery wet leaves. Fortunately, the deliveries were completed with no accidents.

In spite of the problems, substantial progress was made during the first year of the project. The mainframe computer was finally delivered and the programming trips back to Washington were terminated. Programming and testing was behind schedule, but not as much as it had been a few months before. Dr. Hamill and the other Department of Education officials were pleased with the system design and with the capabilities they would have for evaluation, although they regretted the limited database. The curtailed but still massive data collection effort was completed successfully, and forms were shipped to a U.S. data entry service.

Most of the employees worked hard and conscientiously, but morale was at low ebb and this was adversely impacting produc­tivity. USCO executives were concerned; costs were higher than budgeted, and some important deadlines had slipped. A number of executives had visited the project, and most of them had been deluged with complaints from employees. In the ninth month of the project, Tom Ballard, who had just returned from a European assignment, was asked to conduct an investigation to determine what needed to be done to get back on schedule and on budget. He was also to take over direct responsibility for the project, so Gary Johnson now reported to him. Within limits, Ballard had authority to make any personnel and organizational changes that were needed.

From his one-on-one discussions with each employee, Ballard knew that about two-thirds of them had an intense desire to be sent back to the U.S. They, and especially their family members, were unhappy with living conditions, with the schools that their children were attending, and with USCO. Their poor morale had an adverse effect on productivity. Some employees spent a significant amount of time on the telephone with their spouses, who often called to complain about home problems.

The other seven employ­ees had a completely different attitude; they and their families thought Puerto Rico was a fine place to live and a wonderful opportunity to meet people from all over the world. They had developed warm friendships outside the company and had learned to love the outdoor activities that were available, such as golf and snorkel­ing. These seven definitely wanted to stay, and they included some of the most productive members of the project. There was considerable animosity between the two groups, which was also hurting morale. Some of those who wanted to leave were also excellent performers, and losing them would be a difficult problem at first, but some of the most complex programming was near completion. Ballard was fairly confident that the project could be implemented satisfactorily with the nucleus of the seven, who wanted to stay, plus eight to ten young Puerto Rican programmers and analysts who were available for hire. Some of these had already worked on the project on a part-time, temporary basis, and had proved to be fast learners and creative analysts.

However, he was not at all convinced that it would be a good idea to let all those return to the U.S. who wanted to go. His orders were to use this option only as a last resort. Finding jobs for all those sent back would be a major problem, since some other large projects had recently been completed. His biggest concern, though, was the precedent that would be set. After all, these people had volunteered for the project, and had willingly, even eagerly, signed up to stay for three full years. Based on this commitment, the company had invested substantial resources in transporting them and their belongings to Puerto Rico, and large amounts of executive time in responding to their personal prob­lems. The expense of sending them back was also considerable. By no means had this investment been recouped, and since meaning­ful U.S. assignments were scarce, they would not be nearly as productive in the U.S. as they would have been by staying with the project. It was an important project, too, with potentially great long-term benefits for the children of the island; were these employees unaware of that? The company’s policy guaranteed them a job in the U.S.; were they taking unfair advantage of the company? Should they be allowed to break commitments without any penalty? Certainly USCO’s policies were poorly thought out, but did not the employ­ees have some responsibility? Shouldn’t they have realized that living in Puerto Rico would be different than in the U.S., and that it was not an “island paradise?” Why did some employees love it here while most did not? Had the Puerto Rico-haters given the island a fair chance? Did their attitude that they did not like cultures different from theirs become a self-fulfilling prophecy? As Tom Ballard entered the dining room, he could see that two groups were separated, with those who wanted to leave on one side of the room, looking angry, and the others with serious but expectant expressions. He was still weighing the alternatives as he strode to the microphone.

Reflection:
          
          JAGR Consultant group was tasked with a difficult charge. Evaluating our companies position, the current standings of the PREP, and offering a set of solutions towards a failing project is never easy. But, that is why we hired them. The consultants did a good job capturing the essence of PREP related business evaluation with the following slides:





The first piece was important cause it is a reminder that our primary objective is client satisfaction. The second component illustrated what I thought was an essential piece for leading to a decision. 

The team from JAGR recommended keeping the seven employees that were happy and hire Puerto Rican programmers. 



I fundamentally agree with his plan but think that it is lacking in full depth. There are some additional points to recommend and realize.

The first piece to really understand is that the project was set to fail by management. As members of the board, we have to cognizant of internal mistakes so that we don’t repeat them.

The following is one area where we failed:

“John Piersall, the division Vice President for Personnel, was dispatched to San Juan for three days to determine the need for special policies. His mission was to evaluate whether language would be a problem and whether there was a difference in cost of living. He stayed at the Caribe Hilton, a pleasant hotel in an exotic setting on the beach. Although he expected to find that most people would speak adequate English, he was pleasantly surprised to find that the desk personnel, the bellhops at the hotel, and the people running small shops in the beach area had an excellent command of the language. He was not able to communicate with the maid who cleaned his room, but he reasoned that the teachers and princi­pals with whom the PREP employees would be dealing were educated people and would have no problems with English. To evaluate the cost of living, he discussed costs with a wealthy friend of his who was the manager of the San Juan branch of Chase Manhattan Bank. This individual had a beautiful home maintained by three servants, and he had not noticed any difference in living costs as compared with the U.S. He did mention that there had been some recent agitation by the independistas, a small fringe group who wanted Puerto Rico to declare its independence from the U.S., but he felt that the great majority of the people wanted to remain part of the U.S. and would not be influenced by the independistas. Based on Piersall’s report, it was decided that PREP could be administered as a standard domestic off-site project, without special compensation or other new provisions."

Gary Johnson didn’t have a chance to succeed because the initial planning stages were wrong. This is not to say that I am absolving him or any of the other employees of their personal responsibilities to the company and the project. The point is that as leaders we have to recognize accountability is a two way street. We have to be accountable for our actions. Mistakes are as serious as the results they cause, and in this case we are faced with a real serious negative result.
Having set the stage for accountability, our course of action should be to steer the project back towards a successful path. We should meet with the our customers first. They are currently happy and we want to keep it that way. While we won’t outright say our project is failing, we should take the accountable approach and try to realign some goals now that we have more current data. We wouldn’t want to endanger the welfare of the children’s education just to meet a deadline. If we can afford to take some time to regroup, we can at least plan more carefully and really assess our current position. We can’t know how to get to where we want to go without first knowing where we are. In this effort, we should also recognize that the current deadline needs to be reassesed.

Once the position is really understood then we can go on with the consultants plan to keep the seven employees that were happy and hire Puerto Rican programmers. We want USCO to have more control over the project and try to make the situation better for all involved. The timeline for the project should also be revisited based on where the project is now. Deadlines were missed, so the remaining aspects of the project need to be re-planned so that new deadlines can be put in place based on the new project direction that will be taken with Tom Ballard as the project manager. After revisiting the project deadlines, this will allow USCO to increase customer satisfaction because they will meet the new deadlines with proper planning. Ultimately we want success and that will begin with realistic expectations, the right employees, and support from management across the board.